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This year has had quite a few ups and downs concerning the oil market but remains relatively calm compared to both the major fluctuations and events of 2011 and 2012.One of the first significant events of 2013 that dominated headlines and affected the oil market was the US sequestration back in March.

The headlines and speculation had Wall Street commodities traders guessing the direction oil would take as the US sequestration was underway.Both Crude oil prices (97/b$) and heating oil futures ($2.95/gal) spiked over the month of March due to the uncertainty before dropping sharply in April, $88/b and $2.79/gal respectively.The market was triggered in April by both economic fundamentals and speculation in the market based on the IMF world outlook.The outlook was reduced because both the US and Chinese economic growth reports were less than expected.We saw a similar dip in prices in May before the fundamentals took hold again, when oil prices dropped significantly.

The next fluctuation was a huge spike over the unrest in Egypt this caused traders and investors to speculate over the possibility of losing use of the Suez Canal.Oil prices rose quickly and consistently through July as protests intensified leading up to Egyptian President Morsi being removed.After his removal oil prices continued to rise in August as Morsi supporters clashed with police.

August and through most of September we watched oil rise even more as the conflict escalated in Syria, peaking just during and after the allegations of chemical weapons.Many worried the conflict would spread to surrounding regions which drove prices further up.Prices spiked with the possibility of US military intervention but have steadily declined after the first agreement where the threat of US military action was averted, opening the way for a diplomatic resolution.The prices dropped a bit more as the US and Russia made more progress with negotiations regarding the draft resolution of the U.N. Security Council.

The most recent event that had investors and traders worried was our own government shutdown. While the shutdown cost the economy a significant amount of money, $24 billion based on the Standard and Poor assessment, the price of oil remained stable.During the shutdown, the EIA suspended its usual inventory reports, which is one factor as to why oil was stable.After the shutdown ended the EIA resumed their normal functions and reported rising inventories, which pushed the price of oil down.

Long term EIA reposts forecast relatively stable oil prices for the remainder of 2013 and 2014 with the normal small increase in market price as winter demand grows with lower temps.

Propane prices fell for the second year in a row for OTEA members on fixed price plans, however retail propane prices will increase as demand increases with the normal winter forecasted.